The Data
What are the common knowledge statistics? For what it is worth, the media will tout winning and losing, but fans say that it can’t happen, as another loss against their team. That is where the probability comes into full effect; each coin flip is a new chance. Chance shows that the figures for one year to another are not the same. Examples include the world record of 23 consecutive reds on the roulette table and the Oakland Athletics’ 20-game winning streak in 2002. In 2024, the Minnesota Twins are enjoying a 12-game winning steak. Now, taking a look at the Twins’ record of 71 wins versus 57 losses. One team will get a win probability of 55.5%. Comparing this against the win record of other teams will perhaps give some insight into what is likely to happen in the future.
Statistics Overall
We scratch off repeating numbers at the roulette table but are not guaranteed at which. The one thing that is constant is the mean. This underpins the notion of community and shared outcome. Where one game could go any which way, its a whole lot less likely that several teams would have really poor games simultaneously. All right, if you are walking along and you happen to notice there have been seven reds in a row on the board at the roulette table. Run the bet three times, it becomes less and less likely that this is still going to happen. The chance of ten reds in succession hit being the probability, it will be around 1 in 10,000. The chance of 1 in 10,000 occurring three times consecutively becomes even more unlikely.
Common Knowledge
That raises the question of how such apparently impossible situations could continue. This is not to guide you on what or how to bet, but rather a thought on why you may want to spread your money across a community. A community which can be teetering on the brink of a statistical impossibility. Being able to understand these dynamics is bound to bring clarity into certainty in a landscape of chance and probability. Will a team win every game in a season? I highly doubt it and that is the common knowledge statistic.